tv Cavuto on Business FOX News July 30, 2011 10:30am-11:00am EDT
imminent, that riles a lot of folks, ratings agencies doing it certainly before the august 2nd deadline. it's a whole other bet. and we're downgrade is inevitable, i told folks on this network and elsewhere that i think it is inevitable regardless of the kind of deal that they make. but having said that, barney frank did raise an interesting issue and one i want to talk up with a colleague and friend, house producer, just because that happens, it doesn't mean you just unload en masse triple-a securities because you're under the assumption, let's say you're a bank or brokerage house, chad, that you have to. what do you make of that? >> that's the interesting thing. it doesn't work like the government shutdown where the law funding a certain branch of the federal government expires at 11:59 p.m. at a certain day and 12:01 a.m. you don't have the money to run that. this is so long as the money is in the treasury to go out
the door and cut the checks, social security checks, what have you, ostensibly nothing happens. and moody's signaled nat u.s. would likely retain the triple-a credit rating so long as they didn't miss a bond payment and standard of poor's is sort of only one they think something, so we keep saying august 2nd, august 2nd, there's some degree of consequence, but not where we're shut down 11:59, they lock the gates. >> neil: right, right. in the meantime, they're all about locking down the phones here because they're ringing off the hook. right? i mean, who have they be getting more of the phone calls, republicans, the president of course, pushing that in his radio address again. pushed, folks, call your congressman if you're upset and want to see a deal made and reach an agreement. who is getting more of the calls. >> everyone on capitol hill knows that one of the best or worst jobs in capitol hill is the receptionist, intern or whoever sits out front ap answers the phone. i'm told yesterday, you hear everything, you get this broad
range of calls and some people get well-reasoned arguments and others want to call up and raise cane with their congressman. they were peaking at 31,000 calls per hour at house of representatives. usually around 20,000, an average day and sent out a system alert saying that you know, that the phones were being taxed, the second time they had done this. by way of contrast, the high water mark for the deal was during health care, with 50,000. we're starting to see a little bit of a-- people calling up who are worried, that something might happen and you know, some people i talked to yesterday, people just average answering your kind of phone kind of people, on capitol hill. not chiefs of staffs, not members. starting to hear from business people, saying they were concerned there would be a triple-down effect and might have layoff people. and certainly the elderly, the social security checks, look, i live paycheck to paycheck on a fixed income, and if you, know, that check doesn't come
in the mail i'm up a cheek. chad, thank you very much. and watching this drama unfold and an expert on all things house and senate as well. speak of the senate we've got mike lee from the republican from the fine state of utah joining us. how likely, do you think, senator we'll make the deadline on the 2nd. >> based on what i'm hearing, keep in mind the rumor mill recycles every 60 to 90 minutes these days. >> neil: actually 60 to 90 seconds. >> that, too. i'm sensing we'll likely get the debt limit raised by tuesday, but it's still too early to tell and folks today, house will be voting in just the next couple of hours. >> neil: you're wasting your time with that bill, though? that's a variation of the reid measure i guess they're going to contemplate after midnight, to shoot it down, just as he and the senator shut down the house measure. tit for tat. >> i don't know what they'll
do in the house, you'll have to ask them for information. >> mitch mcconnell keeps coming up, that he has a backup plan maybe revisit the one that calls or gives the president the authority to raise the debt ceiling and the house and senate can override that, but the odds of going so, two-thirds, are such to next to impossible and everyone sort of gets a pass and the only fingerprints on that would be the president's c'est la vie. >> well, anytime we pass a new law, it has the fingerprint of everyone who passed the law not just the president's. so that idea has its supporters. >> does it have yours? i happen to not be one of them. >> that came up. the mcconnell plan came up as the only workable plan, two minutes before tuesday. >> no, i'd have to vote against that one. look, i've said, i've promised my constituents since before i got here and sworn in, i will oppose any effort to raise the debt limit that doesn't have
attached a balanced budget to be passed for ratification, as i explained. >> neil: love how you get your book in there. >> it's a good book. blend it in. >> i think so and make the publisher happy. >> neil: and puts o'reilly to shame. >> exactly. so, listen, the only way we solve this problem, which is a permanent problem, is with a permanent solution and the only way that we can find not only this congress, but future congresses in their spending ability is through a constitutional amendment. >> we'll see where it goes. senator, always a pleasure. >> thank you. >> we've got so much more coming up here, one. things we're sort of wrestling with, again with apologies to the late, great peter faulk of columbo fame. i don't want to over do the thing i heard from barnney frank, if it means all after sudden that any bank or institution does not have to sell a triple-a security, u.s. government. that could be a very, very big deal. here is why, that's the fear that all of a sudden those who
hold triple. government securities, all of a sudden have to sell them. sell at the same time and the price tumbles and the corresponding interest rates rise. inflationary spiral and that could be a big deal. is it? and is passing or buck or leaving people at home to say, what's a buck? >> i know you're worried about making your savis last and having enough income when you retire. that's why i'm here -- to help come up with a plan and get you on the right path.
>> all right. continuing now from the nation's capitol where they're doing everything they can to get a deal done by tuesday, but time is running out and they were kind of wasting their time in the meantime, the house is going to take up a measure that kind of looks, sounds and smells a lot like what harry reid is going to take up in the senate after midnight tonight, definitely
early tomorrow morning. and it's going to be shot down, i think that's fairly obvious ujust as the speaker boehner measure was shot down in the senate, two hours or so before it barely squeeked by in the house. it's tit for tat and watching the co-chair out of wyoming, senator, how are you? >> i'm very well out here in the wild west, high blue skies about 80. here we are. and i've been listening. >> neil: go ahead. >> no, it's just, it is -- when you travel around the country there's one word. it used to be patriotism, it's now called disgust. they're disgusted with both parties and if either one of the parties as parties are thinking they're getting an advantage, let me tell you the people out in the world are saying, we don't care if you're a damn democrat or a republican, be an american. now, this is tough business. i worked like dog to try to
get a balanced budget amendment. we were one short when i was in the senate. boy, we worked everybody to get it. and we didn't get it. they won't get it. and if they get it, it won't make a bit of difference because they've got to have a two-thirds votes in both houses and 38 states and this problem is immediate. it isn't two years out and this is it, what you said about the markets is absolutely correct. they don't -- the money people, don't like either party or the president, they like money. and all of the-- >> but, alan, if i understand this correctly, the agencies seem to be threatening to downgrade even if we do get a deal, especially if it's a bad deal, and especially if the the cuts are not in the vicinity of 4 trillion dollars over ten years, as a minimum. what do you make of that? >> you've got it. you couldn't be be more clear. let me tell you, this is 14 trillion, 300 billion. now, somebody told me the other day, whether you believe in the big bang theory or not.
the big bang theory is a creation of the universe, i'm not going to get thoo that argument. 13 billion, 700 million years ago, we're talking about 4 trillion, what is this? it is goofy. finally, i know we're breaking up with you, i hope i have it long enough to get a reaction. b barney frank sayseeing even in the event after downgrading, he thinks that moody's a jumping the gun, threatening one, but doesn't mean that institutions have to, unless they have their own special individual rules, sell those securities because they're no longer triple-a. and a, is that true? and b, if it is, you know, in a weird way cld it take the pressure off these guys to come up with a co-gent deal? >> they're not going to come up with a deal and the numbers they're talking about don't even come close and even the president at one tile said 4 trillion in 12 years, and said
4 trillion in ten and they're missing around with 60 billion here, or 100 billion here or there, the ratings agencies will do the job and i'll tell you who gets hurt the most, the little guy everybody has been talking about with inflationing, indexing and all that goes with it, sad, sad, sad. >> neil: but i think also intimating, senator, that this notion that we could see interest rates spiral out of control as institutions start selling government securities because they're required to hold only triple-a securities, that might not in fact be the case. do you know if that's the case? >> i do not know if that's the days. all i know the rating agencies are sitting there, these guys are on the mountain about to give birth to a mouse. >> neil: well put. i'll leave it at that. always a pleasure, senator. thank you very much. >> bye-bye. >> neil: senator alan simpson, we're going to get the business community's reaction as well as what the markets might do on monday morning. let's say we're still kind of where we are now monday
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>> welcome back everybody, neil cavuto at the united states capitol where we're waiting to see what happens the next couple of days. you know, there's actually a side debate here, it's not such a side debate or arcane one over when the actual deadline is. august 2nd, but when august 2nd? the very beginning of august
2nd, 12:01 a.m.? or the end of august 2nd, 11: 11:59. they're asking whether that ceases to hit the limit is hit roughly 24 hours we're talking about here, could be a crucial debate and there's also the notion that the whole august 2nd thing itself is fiction that the government technically has enough money to go at least another week, maybe two, the tax revenues have been stronger than expected. and then a separate argument that says even if the event that it is august 2nd, ostensibly we're robbing peter po pay paul and 172 billion dollars a month and go on for months if not years, the immediate bills to ward off default, but choking off 35 to 40% of funding for a variety of other programs, nobody
wants to opt for that strategy. there in is where the debate lies. at the president and ceo, joining me out of california, jay, you must be watching this shaking your head and biting your nails or both, what? >> all of the above, actually, neil. it's been an amazing debate and i'm on the west coast this wo week talking to some of our members and we're all concerned, high unemployment, no growth in the economy and now risking default. >> neil: what if they get a deal to raise the debt agencies and some ratings, insisting to be attached to that, strenuous spending and the like over ten years, if they're not attached to that, they're going to downgrade anyway. then what? for guys like your organization and everyone in it, what does that mean? >> well, we take the rating agencies very seriously. the cost of credit is a
critical factor to the cost of doing business here in the united states. so, our members, our manufacturers need to invest, they need to grow their facilities. they want to employ more people, but with this uncertainty over the cost of borrowing, it causes a real, real problem for the economy. >> in your druthers, just prefer raise the debt limit and sort the stuff out later, does it matter one way or the other? >> well, it does matter because everybody right now says it matters. had we had ourbu druthers a year ago we would have said make the comments a year ago and do your job through the budget and appropriations process, reduce spending, reduce our structural deficit situation, but really, what's hang right now, neil, this whole debate offer the raising the debt ceiling, while incredibly important and can cause dire consequences if we do default,
is really a distraction from the more structural issues we have in this economy. we have a tax system that makes us noncompetitive. higher energy costs from other kundz around the world and cannot get a grip on the trade policy and uncertainty in the business community. that, coupled with in debt ceiling debate makes it very difficult to do it business in the united states. >> neil: jay timmons, thank you very much, we'll see what happens. now to my friend and colleague charles payne over at the fox business network on what he makes of all of it, because in the middle of all of this, chals, as you've been accurately reporting we've got a serious slowdown going on. >> a very serious slowdowns. the gdp revisions growing at less than 1%, maybe .075. >> neil: that's barely positive, barely positive. >> we need 2 1/2% growth to keep jobs where they are. this sort of points to further
job losses and desperation. what makes you nervous is the rhetoric in the last couple of weeks has been sort of post-mortem. in other words, it feels like the white house has given up on anything they can do to turn the economy around and right now the focus is let's find out who to blame because the economy is not going to get better and that's a sense of hopelessness, that impacts the market. they're still doing that, charles, i want to pick your brain, astute investor as you are. you have a conservative portfolio for some of your more conservative investors and you have to hold only triple-a rated securities and let's say u.s. debt is among those securities, treasury bonds, notes and that sort of thing. and they're downgraded. would you sell them? barney frank tells me there's no law compelling to you do so, would you and others likes you in that event? >> barney frank, i don't know the last time i agreed with him, made an astute point on the show, neil. what we're seeing has begun.
europe, the european agencies have discounted the ratings agencies with the greek rescue, they're in technical default. ecb is continuing to back them up and most are playing ball with them. one thing to our advantage, listen, who else are you going to buy? what other country's debt are you going to buy and another thing barney frank-- >> he says a law in the book effectively are now part of the financial law, i assume, that you don't have to do that. you can go ahead and hold those securities. not that it changes your posture going forward as senator lee told me to buy in the future. it could change the dynamics, right? >> it could change the dynamics, i don't think there will be mass selling. >> neil: we hope you're right, young man. charles payne in new york, we've got a lot more coming up, another hour. the likes of congressman joe walsh, dan quayle joining us and don imus, what doesn't belong and why?